Musyoka Wa Kyendo @PeopleDailyKe
The threat of terrorism in Kenya has declined significantly, an analysis by an international risk analysts, MEA Risk LLC, says. The firm shows that for the period December 2014 to November 2015, terror activities averaged 20 per cent of all destabilising events in the country monthly.
However, they declined to eight per cent in January 2016, zero in February and 3.4 per cent in March. Generally, in the first quarter of 2016, terrorism threats on Kenyan soil declined to 3.4 per cent. Even during this period, the events involved arrest of terror suspects or warning of a potential terror threat.
Only in January were nine policemen killed in Lamu when their vehicles hit landmines in two incidents. The report does not neglect the murder of Kenyan soldiers in El Adde but was looking at terror events on Kenyan soil.
Jubbah Corridor
Security improvement in Kenya began when the African Union mandated Amisom launched Operation “Jubbah Corridor” in mid-July last year. The operation uprooted al-Shabaab from Gedo region of Somalia, which they had held for nine years. The region was the forward base for al- shabaab attacks into Kenyan territory.
The removal from Gedo was a bad omen for al-Shabaab as the death within its ranks began to rise. Since July al-shabaab has been on the receiving end and security in such countries as Kenya is improving. Terrorism incidents declined 29 per cent month- on month to 40 Incidents in July. The death toll shrunk 69 per cent month-on-month to 98 deaths down from 321 in June. The MEARisk CIncidents declined marginally to 2.63 /5.00 in July.
The index is a measure of a country’s stability ranging from 0.5 to 5.0 where 0.5 depicts a stable country 5.0 depicts a failed state. A measure of 2.64 depicts an extreme risk zone where a high level of alertness is required.
There was further 13 per cent decline in recorded terrorist related events to 35 in August which resulted in 65 deaths accounting 34 per cent decline in terror related deaths in East Africa. Terrorism rating in the MEARisk Cincidents index declined from 2.64 in June to 2.33/5.00. In August, a further 43 per cent decline in deaths was recorded indicating that al-Shabaab is under intense pressure and that its threat is being decimated.
As the death toll from terrorism related events took a nosedive, the death toll from security and defense incidents was rising, much of it suffered by al- Shabaab. In June, there were 86 deaths caused by Security and Defense events arising from 51 incidents. This was 12 per cent of the total pool of 708 deaths recorded in June.
Hit hard
A total of 283 deaths were recorded in this category, a 329 per cent increase month-on-month. Of these al-Shabaab suffered 205 of the deaths, forming 74 per cent of the total deaths recorded in this category. This rose 293 per cent to 601 in August with al- shabaab accounting for 71 per cent of the 849 deaths recorded in August.
The rise in al- Shabaab deaths continued into 2016. The first quarter of this year was particularly bad for the terror outfit. It has been hit from all corners by Amisom, Somali National Army and the American drones. At least four high-value commanders have been neutralised together with a large number of fighters.
The last seemingly poorly thought out action was the attack on Puntland by al-Shabaab. In the battle to recover lost territory, some 167 militants were killed and 100 of them arrested. In neighbouring Galmudug, 115 more were killed and another 100 child-soldiers arrested.
The move north, from Jillib and Shabelle regions in South Somalia appears to be an attempt to create some more space for the al-shabaab. Its activities are now confined in Somalia and as the noose tightens, they struck out to the North, where they opened a new enemy territory.
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